Record prices for new U.S. homes amid a sales pickup indicate the supply of houses may be tight at the lower end of the market, pinching first-time buyers, government data showed June 23.
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The slowing momentum in sales is helping boost the supply of homes on the market, measured in months (see bottom chart). For new single-family homes, sales came in at 631,000, down from 666,000 in.
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Redfin reports after more than six years of tight supply and surging home prices, the third quarter of 2018 has been a critical moment for the housing market in many West Coast metro areas.
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One additional note: A major reason for the increase in new home prices in the early 2000s was the buyer’s desire for a larger home. If today’s new homes were only 1,500 square feet, like the homes built in the 1970s, the cost would be considerably less than the 3,500+ square -foot homes of the 2000s.
While the number of homes on the market rose 7.2 percent to 1.93 million units from March, supply was down 9.0 percent from a year ago. Housing inventory has dropped for 23 straight months on a year-on-year basis. As a result, the median house price increased 6.0 percent from a year ago to $244,800 in April, the highest level since June 2016.
Both new and existing home sales were strong in early 2017 but faded into year-end, likely due to rising mortgage rates, unaffordability issues, and continued tight supply levels.
Into 2019 then, failing an all-out US vs. the world trade war, we expect the fundamental rationale to resurface that copper should trade above the incentive price for new mine supply (>$6,800/mt). Post-2020, a lack of new mine supply will transition from a deficit in concentrates into refined metal, and prices are expected to trade higher in.
Investors on Tuesday celebrated the latest buoyant reports on consumer confidence and housing prices, which together suggest that. job creation has been surging. For most Americans, their biggest.
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